Base-level operating assumptions:

1. AI will continue to drive down software development costs and improve developer productivity.
2. AI kinks are getting ironed out in terms of cost, routing, and application under specific scenarios.
3. Semiconductors are likely to remain in shortage going into 2027, but DRAM supply might start to ramp up and normalize prices in the second half of 2027 and into 2028.
4. China and the US are in a friendly post-divorce relationship: no escalating tensions, just a peaceful and quiet decoupling of supply chains and AI tech stacks.
5. Macro demand continues to be K-shaped. China was K-shaped for a while before 2022 and then just sank. The US might be different, but it’s unclear two years out.
6. Inflation stays benign and manageable, and Kevin Warsh is set to deliver low inflation.
7. Hyperscalers’ capex is on a slowed upside trend — not a dramatic increase, but not a decrease either.
8. The EU industrial complex needs more restructuring given its uncompetitive cost base versus China and not enough value-add versus the US.
9. Marginal speculative stocks are already deep in a downtrend.

Things not so sure right now:

testing it out.